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January 12. 2012
Written by Wooksik Cheong(Representative of Peace Network)
The abrupt death of North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-il has been showing some paradoxial situations in Northeast Asia. One of them is the 'convergence' regarding awareness of North Korea by South Korea, the U.S., China, Japan, and Russia. South Korea-U.S.-Japan had thought a sudden change in North Korea such as Kim Jong-il's death was an opportunity of Korea unification so they focused on preparing for this case. An operational plan 5029 which places the ROK-U,S, Combined Force when a sudden change of North Korea occurs and ROK-U.S.-Japan military cooperation reinforcement movement were ground of considering reunification by absorbing the North. This coercive plan for changing status quo on the Korean Peninsula by three countries provoked strategic concerns of North Korea, China, and Russia and incurred DPRK-China-Russia solidarity.
Kim Jong-il is actually dead, however, worried(or expected) sign of any sudden changes in North Korea has not appeared yet. Besides, five neighboring countries, express condolence directly or indirectly and send messages hoping stability in North Korea. It is clear that contents and intents are different but those countries are aware that sudden change in North Korea is disadvantageous to them. This mutual awareness can be an important starting point to reset the order of the Korean Peninsula and East Asia.
Another paradox is North Korea is the first one which transferred power among six-party talks countries. Although Mr. Kim had health problems but he worked actively. Most people including US-ROK intelligence officials anticipated he would control power several more years. New North Korea policies of other countries were likely to be set up after 2013 because the elections of South Korea, the U.S., China, and Russia are planed next year. However the death of Kim Jong-il and emergence of Kim Jong-un regime makes neighboring countries, especially ROK-US-Japan, reconsider the North Korea policy. It is not clear what will be brought out as a conclusion but how to engage new regime is such an important assignment.
For now, it seems not to be easy that Kim Jong-un regime asks for talks to ROK-US-Japan. The mourning period over the demise of Kim Jong-il will continue for a while and new regime is to give an impetus to internal system stabilization. At the same time, Kim Jong-un feels pressured to make "the people to eat rice and meat soup" which means making a "strong and prosperous nation". Feeding the people is the teaching left by former leaders Kim il-sung and Kim Jong-il. It is also important to make a stable regime by Kim Jong-un who does not have any achievements yet.
ROK-U.S.-Japan should seize this opportunity to give a hand to the new regime. First of all, the resumption of bliateral talks and six party talks should be set up swiftly. Right after the demise of Kim Jong-il, the United States tried to contact with North Korea through New York Channel. This is such a positive sign. Furthermore the decision over food aid to North Korea which has been discussed for almost one year needs to be made and a senior talks between North Korea and the U.S. should be carried forward. South Korea and Japan have to find the way to change behaviors of North Korea through talks and contact, not setting change of the North's behaviors as a precondition of talks and humanitarian aids. The renewed engagement policy towards North Korea made by ROK-U.S.-Japan will contribute stability on the Korean Peninsula and trust-building with Kim Jong-un regime. Moreover the coordinated approach toward will help three countries to carry on their policies as reducing the internal political burden.
The opinions over Kim Jong-il can be various but it is clear that his sudden death implies new chances. Just waiting for chances is not desirable. If ROK-U.S.-Japan try to seek for the chances anticipatively and actively, a window of opportunity can be opened soon. The year 2013 is the 60th anniversary of Korean Armistice Agreement and the 20th anniversary of the North's withdrawal from the NPT (Non Proliferation Treaty ). If it is successful to open the window of opportunity next year, the year 2013 can be a new turning point for denuclearization and peace regime on the Korean peninsula. That starting point relies on ROK-U.S.-Japan resetting North Korea policy.
